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I love a good analogy, and I realized: forecasting revenue is a lot like being on time for a dinner...
For investors funding breakthrough healthcare innovations, every quarter behaves a little differently -- and understanding those nuances can make a big difference.
In many therapeutic areas, patient dynamics play a meaningful role in revenue timing. For example, enrollment in high-deductible health plans often drives increased utilization in the fourth quarter, as patients maximize benefits before year-end. That demand is frequently offset in the first quarter, when deductibles reset and utilization softens.
Q4 also brings a unique structural wrinkle: earnings are often pre-announced at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in January. This effectively shifts the predictive window forward by as much as 6 weeks -- raising the bar for timely, accurate forecasting.
Against this backdrop, Kyber clients maintained a clear advantage throughout the 4Q2025 earnings season.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Let’s take a look where Kyber’s best-performing models had less than 4% predictive error through 2025Q4 earnings -- including those pre-announced at JPM:
|
Product |
Ticker |
Final Consensus Estimate |
Reported Revenue |
Final Model Estimate - Midpoint |
Abs Error vs Reported |
|
ACTEMRA |
ROG_CH |
$273.3 |
$280.0 |
$282.4 |
0.8% |
|
AMVUTTRA |
ALNY_US |
$672.8 |
$642.0 |
$653.1 |
1.7% |
|
ALPROLIX |
SOBI_SE |
$612.2 |
$558.0 |
$573.7 |
2.8% |
|
ANDEXXA |
AZN |
$21.7 |
$20.3 |
$20.7 |
1.7% |
|
ATTRUBY |
BBIO |
$135.7 |
$146.0 |
$148.4 |
1.7% |
|
AUSTEDO |
TEVA |
$596.1 |
$725.0 |
$731.7 |
0.9% |
|
BIKTARVY |
GILD |
$3,110.5 |
$3,255.0 |
$3,266.3 |
0.3% |
|
BLINCYTO |
AMGN |
$276.8 |
$270.0 |
$273.2 |
1.2% |
|
BRAFTOVI |
PFE |
$199.6 |
$183.0 |
$187.0 |
2.2% |
|
BREYANZI |
BMY |
$272.8 |
$284.0 |
$273.8 |
3.6% |
|
BRINEURA |
BMRN |
$20.9 |
$19.9 |
$19.6 |
1.6% |
|
BRIUMVI |
TGTX_US |
$180.4 |
$189.1 |
$181.7 |
3.9% |
|
CABENUVA |
GSK |
$328.6 |
$343.0 |
$334.1 |
2.6% |
|
CALQUENCE |
AZN |
$624.3 |
$637.0 |
$655.9 |
3.0% |
|
CEREZYME |
SASY_FR |
$45.3 |
$43.0 |
$43.9 |
2.0% |
|
CINVANTI |
HRTX_US |
$24.1 |
$22.9 |
$23.3 |
1.6% |
|
CYRAMZA |
LLY |
$119.2 |
$113.0 |
$112.1 |
0.8% |
|
DEFINITY_COMBINED |
LNTH_US |
$87.6 |
$85.3 |
$87.9 |
3.1% |
|
DEXCOM G-SERIES CGMs |
DXCM |
$883.1 |
$891.5 |
$879.9 |
1.3% |
|
EMGALITY |
LLY |
$156.6 |
$162.0 |
$165.3 |
2.0% |
|
EVENITY |
AMGN |
$567.6 |
$599.0 |
$583.4 |
2.6% |
|
FILSPARI |
TVTX_US |
$105.8 |
$103.3 |
$99.9 |
3.3% |
|
FREESTYLE LIBRE CGMs |
ABT |
$814.7 |
$805.0 |
$792.1 |
1.6% |
|
GARDASIL |
MRK |
$395.4 |
$406.0 |
$418.9 |
3.2% |
|
GENVOYA |
GILD |
$333.6 |
$331.0 |
$326.8 |
1.3% |
|
HEMLIBRA |
ROG_CH |
$691.6 |
$724.0 |
$724.0 |
0.0% |
|
HUMATROPE |
LLY |
$18.4 |
$13.0 |
$12.6 |
3.2% |
|
IBRANCE |
PFE |
$658.0 |
$686.0 |
$683.8 |
0.3% |
|
JAKAFI |
INCY |
$803.9 |
$828.2 |
$852.1 |
2.9% |
|
JEMPERLI |
GSK |
$180.0 |
$191.0 |
$192.6 |
0.8% |
|
KADCYLA |
ROG_CH |
$177.1 |
$191.0 |
$191.7 |
0.4% |
|
KEVZARA |
REGN |
$89.7 |
$100.0 |
$102.0 |
2.0% |
|
KEYTRUDA |
MRK |
$4,996.9 |
$4,925.0 |
$4,892.5 |
0.7% |
|
KUVAN |
BMRN |
$5.9 |
$7.4 |
$7.4 |
0.5% |
|
LUPRON DEPOT-PED |
ABBV |
$109.6 |
$130.0 |
$128.8 |
0.9% |
|
LYBALVI |
ALKS |
$96.0 |
$94.1 |
$95.7 |
1.7% |
|
LYNPARZA |
MRK |
$187.4 |
$180.0 |
$181.2 |
0.7% |
|
MOUNJARO |
LLY |
$3,797.0 |
$4,143.0 |
$4,132.3 |
0.3% |
|
NEXPLANON |
OGN |
$142.3 |
$125.0 |
$127.4 |
1.9% |
|
NUPLAZID |
ACAD_US |
$184.6 |
$174.4 |
$179.2 |
2.7% |
|
OMNIPOD 5 PACK |
PODD_US |
$557.0 |
$567.8 |
$578.3 |
1.9% |
|
OTEZLA |
AMGN |
$500.0 |
$511.0 |
$508.4 |
0.5% |
|
OXLUMO |
ALNY_US |
$22.6 |
$17.6 |
$17.4 |
1.3% |
|
PLEGRIDY |
BIIB |
$27.0 |
$24.7 |
$24.8 |
0.2% |
|
PLUVICTO |
NOVN_CH |
$420.7 |
$491.0 |
$499.6 |
1.8% |
|
PRALUENT |
REGN |
$69.4 |
$72.2 |
$73.0 |
1.1% |
|
PULMOZYME |
ROG_CH |
$77.8 |
$89.0 |
$86.1 |
3.2% |
|
REBLOZYL |
BMY |
$506.7 |
$552.0 |
$547.4 |
0.8% |
|
RITUXAN HYCELA |
ROG_CH |
$185.7 |
$219.0 |
$216.9 |
0.9% |
|
RYLAZE |
JAZZ |
$103.4 |
$108.2 |
$104.1 |
3.8% |
|
SKYTROFA |
ASND_US |
$62.9 |
$62.8 |
$60.3 |
3.9% |
|
SPRAVATO |
JNJ |
$419.0 |
$438.0 |
$433.0 |
1.1% |
|
STEGLATRO |
MRK |
$27.1 |
$27.1 |
$27.0 |
0.6% |
|
SUBOXONE |
INDV_UK |
$47.6 |
$69.0 |
$68.5 |
0.7% |
|
SYFOVRE |
APLS_US |
$154.5 |
$155.2 |
$151.6 |
2.3% |
|
SYMTUZA |
GILD |
$95.2 |
$98.0 |
$97.7 |
0.3% |
|
TRUVADA |
GILD |
$6.2 |
$7.5 |
$7.7 |
3.0% |
|
TYSABRI |
BIIB |
$198.4 |
$244.5 |
$252.5 |
3.3% |
|
ULTOMIRIS |
AZN |
$718.3 |
$706.0 |
$713.7 |
1.1% |
|
VECTIBIX |
AMGN |
$157.3 |
$163.0 |
$158.1 |
3.0% |
|
VEMLIDY |
GILD |
$135.4 |
$149.0 |
$144.9 |
2.7% |
|
VIMIZIM |
BMRN |
$46.9 |
$48.6 |
$48.9 |
0.6% |
|
VIVITROL |
ALKS |
$123.5 |
$124.1 |
$123.0 |
0.9% |
|
VRAYLAR |
ABBV |
$980.0 |
$1,020.0 |
$1,000.1 |
2.0% |
|
VYEPTI |
LUN_DK |
$1,048.7 |
$1,074.0 |
$1,074.4 |
0.0% |
|
VYVGART_COMBINED |
ARGX_NL |
$1,077.2 |
$1,087.0 |
$1,115.5 |
2.6% |
|
XPOVIO |
KPTI_US |
$32.1 |
$32.1 |
$31.7 |
1.4% |
|
ZERBAXA |
MRK |
$44.3 |
$50.0 |
$48.8 |
2.4% |
Kyber clients gain access to product-level revenue forecasts as early as week six of the quarter, powered by machine learning models within Kyber Focal Methods (KFM). These models are fully back-tested, transparent, and continuously refined.
Related reading: From Paper Maps to GPS: How Kyber's Claims Data Re-Routes Healthcare Investing
New Year, New Advantage
Beyond early forecasts, Kyber’s edge is reinforced through our supported partnership model. Our customer success teams stay closely engaged with clients throughout the quarter—building on directional insights, pressure-testing assumptions, and ensuring investors understand the “why” behind the data.
As we enter a new year of healthcare innovation and investment opportunity, Kyber remains focused on one goal: helping investors act earlier, with greater confidence.
The result: more informed decisions—and a clearer path to alpha.
