---
title: "4Q2025 Healthcare Earnings Recap: How Kyber Tracks Revenue Signals Early, with Low Predictive Error"
description: Analyze 4Q2025 healthcare earnings and see how Kyber's predictive models achieved under 4% error by tracking early revenue signals and patient dynamics.
image: https://blog.forian.com/hubfs/4Q2025%20Healthcare%20Earnings%20Recap%20How%20Kyber%20Tracks%20Revenue%20Signals%20Early%2c%20with%20Low%20Predictive%20Error.png
---

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 Apr 1, 2026 4:09:16 PM

# 4Q2025 Healthcare Earnings Recap: How Kyber Tracks Revenue Signals Early, with Low Predictive Error

![Picture of Ryan Marie Killoy](https://blog.forian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Ryan%20headshot.jpeg?width=50&name=Ryan%20headshot.jpeg) [Ryan Marie Killoy](https://blog.forian.com/author/ryan-marie-killoy)

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For investors funding breakthrough healthcare innovations, every quarter behaves a little differently -- and understanding those nuances can make a big difference.

In many therapeutic areas, patient dynamics play a meaningful role in revenue timing. For example, enrollment in high-deductible health plans often drives increased utilization in the fourth quarter, as patients maximize benefits before year-end. That demand is frequently offset in the first quarter, when deductibles reset and utilization softens.

Q4 also brings a unique structural wrinkle: earnings are often pre-announced at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in January. This effectively shifts the predictive window forward by as much as 6 weeks -- raising the bar for timely, accurate forecasting.

Against this backdrop, Kyber clients maintained a clear advantage throughout the 4Q2025 earnings season.

![image003](https://blog.forian.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image003.png?width=585&height=378&name=image003.png)

 

### **The Numbers Tell the Story**

Let’s take a look where Kyber’s best-performing models had less than 4% predictive error through 2025Q4 earnings -- including those pre-announced at JPM:

| **Product** | **Ticker** | **Final Consensus Estimate** | **Reported Revenue** | **Final Model Estimate - Midpoint** | **Abs Error vs Reported** |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ACTEMRA | ROG\_CH | $273.3 | $280.0 | $282.4 | 0.8% |
| AMVUTTRA | ALNY\_US | $672.8 | $642.0 | $653.1 | 1.7% |
| ALPROLIX | SOBI\_SE | $612.2 | $558.0 | $573.7 | 2.8% |
| ANDEXXA | AZN | $21.7 | $20.3 | $20.7 | 1.7% |
| ATTRUBY | BBIO | $135.7 | $146.0 | $148.4 | 1.7% |
| AUSTEDO | TEVA | $596.1 | $725.0 | $731.7 | 0.9% |
| BIKTARVY | GILD | $3,110.5 | $3,255.0 | $3,266.3 | 0.3% |
| BLINCYTO | AMGN | $276.8 | $270.0 | $273.2 | 1.2% |
| BRAFTOVI | PFE | $199.6 | $183.0 | $187.0 | 2.2% |
| BREYANZI | BMY | $272.8 | $284.0 | $273.8 | 3.6% |
| BRINEURA | BMRN | $20.9 | $19.9 | $19.6 | 1.6% |
| BRIUMVI | TGTX\_US | $180.4 | $189.1 | $181.7 | 3.9% |
| CABENUVA | GSK | $328.6 | $343.0 | $334.1 | 2.6% |
| CALQUENCE | AZN | $624.3 | $637.0 | $655.9 | 3.0% |
| CEREZYME | SASY\_FR | $45.3 | $43.0 | $43.9 | 2.0% |
| CINVANTI | HRTX\_US | $24.1 | $22.9 | $23.3 | 1.6% |
| CYRAMZA | LLY | $119.2 | $113.0 | $112.1 | 0.8% |
| DEFINITY\_COMBINED | LNTH\_US | $87.6 | $85.3 | $87.9 | 3.1% |
| DEXCOM G-SERIES CGMs | DXCM | $883.1 | $891.5 | $879.9 | 1.3% |
| EMGALITY | LLY | $156.6 | $162.0 | $165.3 | 2.0% |
| EVENITY | AMGN | $567.6 | $599.0 | $583.4 | 2.6% |
| FILSPARI | TVTX\_US | $105.8 | $103.3 | $99.9 | 3.3% |
| FREESTYLE LIBRE CGMs | ABT | $814.7 | $805.0 | $792.1 | 1.6% |
| GARDASIL | MRK | $395.4 | $406.0 | $418.9 | 3.2% |
| GENVOYA | GILD | $333.6 | $331.0 | $326.8 | 1.3% |
| HEMLIBRA | ROG\_CH | $691.6 | $724.0 | $724.0 | 0.0% |
| HUMATROPE | LLY | $18.4 | $13.0 | $12.6 | 3.2% |
| IBRANCE | PFE | $658.0 | $686.0 | $683.8 | 0.3% |
| JAKAFI | INCY | $803.9 | $828.2 | $852.1 | 2.9% |
| JEMPERLI | GSK | $180.0 | $191.0 | $192.6 | 0.8% |
| KADCYLA | ROG\_CH | $177.1 | $191.0 | $191.7 | 0.4% |
| KEVZARA | REGN | $89.7 | $100.0 | $102.0 | 2.0% |
| KEYTRUDA | MRK | $4,996.9 | $4,925.0 | $4,892.5 | 0.7% |
| KUVAN | BMRN | $5.9 | $7.4 | $7.4 | 0.5% |
| LUPRON DEPOT-PED | ABBV | $109.6 | $130.0 | $128.8 | 0.9% |
| LYBALVI | ALKS | $96.0 | $94.1 | $95.7 | 1.7% |
| LYNPARZA | MRK | $187.4 | $180.0 | $181.2 | 0.7% |
| MOUNJARO | LLY | $3,797.0 | $4,143.0 | $4,132.3 | 0.3% |
| NEXPLANON | OGN | $142.3 | $125.0 | $127.4 | 1.9% |
| NUPLAZID | ACAD\_US | $184.6 | $174.4 | $179.2 | 2.7% |
| OMNIPOD 5 PACK | PODD\_US | $557.0 | $567.8 | $578.3 | 1.9% |
| OTEZLA | AMGN | $500.0 | $511.0 | $508.4 | 0.5% |
| OXLUMO | ALNY\_US | $22.6 | $17.6 | $17.4 | 1.3% |
| PLEGRIDY | BIIB | $27.0 | $24.7 | $24.8 | 0.2% |
| PLUVICTO | NOVN\_CH | $420.7 | $491.0 | $499.6 | 1.8% |
| PRALUENT | REGN | $69.4 | $72.2 | $73.0 | 1.1% |
| PULMOZYME | ROG\_CH | $77.8 | $89.0 | $86.1 | 3.2% |
| REBLOZYL | BMY | $506.7 | $552.0 | $547.4 | 0.8% |
| RITUXAN HYCELA | ROG\_CH | $185.7 | $219.0 | $216.9 | 0.9% |
| RYLAZE | JAZZ | $103.4 | $108.2 | $104.1 | 3.8% |
| SKYTROFA | ASND\_US | $62.9 | $62.8 | $60.3 | 3.9% |
| SPRAVATO | JNJ | $419.0 | $438.0 | $433.0 | 1.1% |
| STEGLATRO | MRK | $27.1 | $27.1 | $27.0 | 0.6% |
| SUBOXONE | INDV\_UK | $47.6 | $69.0 | $68.5 | 0.7% |
| SYFOVRE | APLS\_US | $154.5 | $155.2 | $151.6 | 2.3% |
| SYMTUZA | GILD | $95.2 | $98.0 | $97.7 | 0.3% |
| TRUVADA | GILD | $6.2 | $7.5 | $7.7 | 3.0% |
| TYSABRI | BIIB | $198.4 | $244.5 | $252.5 | 3.3% |
| ULTOMIRIS | AZN | $718.3 | $706.0 | $713.7 | 1.1% |
| VECTIBIX | AMGN | $157.3 | $163.0 | $158.1 | 3.0% |
| VEMLIDY | GILD | $135.4 | $149.0 | $144.9 | 2.7% |
| VIMIZIM | BMRN | $46.9 | $48.6 | $48.9 | 0.6% |
| VIVITROL | ALKS | $123.5 | $124.1 | $123.0 | 0.9% |
| VRAYLAR | ABBV | $980.0 | $1,020.0 | $1,000.1 | 2.0% |
| VYEPTI | LUN\_DK | $1,048.7 | $1,074.0 | $1,074.4 | 0.0% |
| VYVGART\_COMBINED | ARGX\_NL | $1,077.2 | $1,087.0 | $1,115.5 | 2.6% |
| XPOVIO | KPTI\_US | $32.1 | $32.1 | $31.7 | 1.4% |
| ZERBAXA | MRK | $44.3 | $50.0 | $48.8 | 2.4% |

Kyber clients gain access to **product-level revenue forecasts as early as week six of the quarter**, powered by machine learning models within Kyber Focal Methods (KFM). These models are fully back-tested, transparent, and continuously refined.

*Related reading:* [*From Paper Maps to GPS: How Kyber's Claims Data Re-Routes Healthcare Investing*](https://blog.forian.com/from-paper-maps-to-gps-kyber-claims-data-reroutes-healthcare-investing)

### **New Year, New Advantage**

Beyond early forecasts, Kyber’s edge is reinforced through our supported partnership model. Our customer success teams stay closely engaged with clients throughout the quarter—building on directional insights, pressure-testing assumptions, and ensuring investors understand the “why” behind the data.

As we enter a new year of healthcare innovation and investment opportunity, Kyber remains focused on one goal: helping investors act earlier, with greater confidence.

**The result: more informed decisions—and a clearer path to alpha.**

[Kyber Data Science](https://blog.forian.com/tag/kyber-data-science)

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